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A view shows the placards of the political parties in front of the European Central Bank (ECB) building in Frankfurt, Germany, September 14, 2023. The central bank for the 20 countries that use the euro has already raised interest rates 10 times to record levels but inflation remains well above its 2% target. ECB President Christine Lagarde said last week that policymakers had not discussed the bond-buying schemes at their latest policy meeting. She described the PEPP as the ECB's "first line of defence" to preserve policy transmission - central bank jargon for bond market stability in the most indebted countries. Slovenian central bank governor Bostjan Vasle recently backed selling bonds bought under the ECB's older Asset Purchase Programme, which is less flexible than the PEPP.

Persons: Wolfgang Rattay, Christine Lagarde, Bostjan Vasle, Peter Kazimir, Catherine Evans Organizations: European Central Bank, REUTERS, Central Bank, Reuters, ECB, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, Italy, FRANKFURT, Athens, Slovenian, PEPP, Sintra

But speaking on Wednesday, the last day before the ECB's self-imposed quiet period, the Dutch, French, German and Slovak central bank chiefs all said the Governing Council's decision was still open. France's Francois Villeroy de Galhau hinted that a fresh rate hike could still come at a later date and argued that the slowdown is not a recession and that the ECB needed to persevere in its fight with inflation. Slovakia's Peter Kazimir, an outspoken policy hawk, was more explicit, arguing that another hike was still needed to tame inflation. He said the ECB could delay a rate rise to one of its autumn meetings or pull the trigger next week. "It would be wrong to bet on a rapid decrease in interest rates after the peak," Nagel told German business daily Handelsblatt.

Persons: Nagel, France's Francois Villeroy de Galhau, Peter Kazimir, Kazimir, Klaas Knot, Bundesbank, Joachim Nagel, " Nagel, Robert Holzmann, Mario Centeno, Akanksha Khushi, Catherine Evans Organizations: Central Bank, ECB, Bloomberg, Reuters Global Markets, Thomson Locations: FRANKFURT, PARIS, Slovak

☆ ECB may need to raise rates for longer than anticipated: Kazimir
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-09 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

FRANKFURT, May 9 (Reuters) - The European Central Bank may need to raise interest rates for longer than currently anticipated, and September could be the earliest moment when policymakers can judge whether past rate hikes have been effective, ECB policymaker Peter Kazimir said on Tuesday. The ECB has lifted rates at each of its past seven meetings to fight a historic surge in consumer prices and policymakers have signalled further hikes to come as inflation pressures continue to build. "Based on today's data, we will have to keep raising interest rates for longer than anticipated," Kazimir, Slovakia's central bank chief, said in a blog post. The ECB sees inflation falling under 3% by the final quarter of this year, then taking almost two more years to ease back to its 2% target. "The development of core inflation, the continued buildup of wage pressures, and high-profit margins call for vigilance and reconfirm the need to continue on our path," Kazimir said.

☆ Exclusive: ECB policymakers converging on 25-bps rate hike in May - sources
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-13 | by ( Balazs Koranyi | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The ECB has raised rates by at least 50 basis points each at six successive meetings -- the fastest pace on record -- to fight stubbornly high inflation. The sources said that some are advocating no change in May - mostly the same Southern European policymakers who did not support last month's 50 basis point increase, while others - also a small group - argue for another 50 basis point hike. Klaas Knot of the Netherlands said it was unclear whether 50 basis points would be needed or if 25 was enough. Slovakia's Peter Kazimir said the ECB could perhaps slow down the pace of its increases while Austria's Robert Holzmann meanwhile backed another 50 basis point move. Markets currently price 25 basis point hikes each in May and June, while a third such increase is fully priced in by September.

☆ Exclusive: ECB policymakers converging on 25-bps rate hike in May , sources say
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-13 | by ( Balazs Koranyi | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

☆ ECB rates will need to rise but possibly at a slower pace - policymakers
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-29 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

FRANKFURT, March 29 (Reuters) - European Central Bank interest rates will likely have to rise further to contain inflation, policymakers said on Wednesday, but at least one outspoken conservative floated the idea of a slowdown in the pace of increases. ECB chief economist Philip Lane, who makes the formal policy proposals to his 25 colleagues, said that his baseline is for the turmoil to dissipate and then rates would need to rise several times. "If the financial stress we see is non-zero, but turns out to be still fairly limited, interest rates will still need to go up." Slovak central bank chief Peter Kazimir, a proponent of rapid rate increases, meanwhile made the case for slower rises following three straight 50-basis point hikes. Reporting by Balazs Koranyi, Jan Lopatka, Jason Hovet and Robert Muller; Editing by Toby ChopraOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

"I am very well aware of the delicacy of the situation ... but we are not yet at the finish line." Fellow hawk Simkus also told reporters in Vilnius he believed that Thursday's "was not the last rate hike". But neither policymaker made a case for a rate increase as soon as the next ECB meeting, and Kazimir said it was useless to speculate about the May 4 decision. French central bank governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau said the hike reflected the ECB's inflation-fighting priorities and signalled confidence in the solidity of European banks. "There are risks to inflation on both sides, but in my view, upward risks are much greater," he said.

☆ Morning Bid: Market to ChatGPT: what's Powell gotta say?
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-07 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

[1/2] ChatGPT logo and rising stock graph are seen in this illustration taken, February 3, 2023. Google owner Alphabet (GOOGL.O) unveiled a rival to super popular ChatGPT, saying it will launch a chatbot service named 'Bard'. Asian shares held their ground while the rally in the U.S. dollar took a breather on Tuesday. Reuters GraphicsMeanwhile, a deadly earthquake killed more than 3,700 people across a swathe of Turkey and northwest Syria, sending Turkey's lira to a record low. Before Powell takes centre stage and hogs the limelight, Bank of England's Huw Pill is also due to speak and his comments on monetary policy will likely move markets.

☆ ECB set to raise rates again in May, policymakers say
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

While neither would specify where rate hikes could end, Simkus said the ECB could be approaching a peak. "I think that we are already moving towards that terminal rate." Indeed, analysts polled by the ECB expect the euro zone central bank to eventually conquer inflation - but not for another two years. Markets currently price the terminal rate at 3.35%, suggesting that some investors see just a 25-bp move after the already signalled March move, while others see 50. Companies surveyed by the central bank were planning to raise prices at a slower pace and with less conviction.

☆ Take Five: The Bottom Line
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Australia and India's central banks are navigating the shifting sands of data and markets are digesting what the world's top central banks have to offer. The question is what impact this will have on bonds and stocks markets after a stellar January? Reuters Graphics4/ RUN RALLY, RUNIt was a stellar start to 2023 for markets - stocks and government bonds enjoyed one of the best Januaries on record, fuelled by optimism that the worst is over. That's not good for a central bank, nor is the idea that their communication is ineffective. Policy rate hikes and cuts by central banks overseeing the 10 most traded currencies.

This would take the rate the ECB pays on bank deposits to the highest level since November 2008, after a steady climb from a record low of -0.5% in July. Reuters GraphicsThe ECB said in December that rates would be increased "at a steady pace" until it is happy inflation is heading back down to its 2% target. BNP Paribas also thought the ECB might take out the reference to a "steady pace" of rate hikes or offset it so that a 50-basis-point increase would be "not predetermined (but) still a possible outcome". And an ECB survey showed banks were tightening access to credit by the most since the 2011 debt crisis - usually the harbinger of lower growth and slowing inflation. To some observers, this meant the ECB would be wise not to commit to any future policy move.

NEW YORK, Jan 23 (Reuters) - The dollar edged lower against the euro on Monday, as the common currency found support from European Central Bank officials' comments signalling additional jumbo interest rate rises in Europe. The euro reached as high as $1.0927 , to trade at its highest level since April last year, before paring gains to trade up 0.1 % at $1.0865. A Reuters survey of analysts also favoured hikes of 50 basis points at the next two meetings and an eventual rate peak of 3.25%, from the current rate of 2%. "Really what's driving things is central bank policy divergence," said Joe Manimbo, senior market analyst at Convera in Washington. So when you weigh the outlook for central bank policy, it depicts the dollar at a disadvantage, given market bets on the Fed moving more slowly than its counterparts abroad," Manimbo said.

The euro reached as high as $1.0927 , breaking the recent peak of $1.08875, to trade at its highest level since April last year. The single currency was aided by European Central Bank (ECB) governing council members Klaas Knot and Peter Kazimir, who both advocated for two more 50 basis point hikes at meetings in February and March. A Reuters survey of analysts also favoured hikes of 50 basis points at the next two meetings and an eventual rate peak of 3.25%, from the current rate of 2%. Investors also have around 50 basis points of U.S. rate cuts priced in for the second half of the year, reflecting softer data on inflation, consumer spending and housing. The pound rose as high as $1.24475 , its highest in seven months, before turning 0.3% lower to $1.2355.

[1/3] Signage is seen outside the European Central Bank (ECB) building, in Frankfurt, Germany, July 21, 2022. The Dutch and Slovak central bank governors gave explicit support for a bigger move in March while ECB President Christine Lagarde also appeared to back such an increase. But it is not a reason to slow the tempo of raising interest rates," Kazimir said in a statement on Monday. "I am convinced that we need to deliver two more hikes by 50 basis points." Economists polled by Reuters expect the ECB to deliver 50 basis point interest rate rises at each of its next two meetings.

☆ ECB policymakers stick with hike plans even as recession looms
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-28 | by ( Balazs Koranyi | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

[1/2] Signage is seen outside the European Central Bank (ECB) building, in Frankfurt, Germany, July 21, 2022. But policymakers on Friday appeared to be on message that rates will keep going up. Investors now see ECB rates peaking at around 2.75%, above levels near 2.5% seen on Thursday after the ECB's rate hike and language tweaks. RECESSIONThe policymakers' reinforcement of the rate hike message comes as a recession now looks almost certain, and will likely prompt a barrage of further criticism from European leaders. But ECB chief Christine Lagarde pushed back on the criticism on Thursday, arguing that breaking inflation was the ECB's chief mission and governments could help by providing targeted support for the most vulnerable.

Strengthening the case for another 75 basis point increase, German inflation jumped to 10.9% this month, far beyond expectations for a reading of 10%. "There is no easing in sight, and next year the inflation rate is only likely to fall because energy prices are unlikely to rise again as strongly as this year, partly due to government intervention," Commerzbank economist Ralph Solveen said of the German inflation figures. While few governors ventured to estimate where interest rate hikes could end, de Cos said that models suggest a significantly lower terminal rate than markets now expect. "On the basis of current information, the median terminal rate value across models is at 2.25%-2.50%," de Cos said. Rate hike talk is intensifying even as recession fears rise.

☆ ECB policymakers back another jumbo hike as inflation rises further
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-29 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

VILNIUS, Sept 29 (Reuters) - Four European Central Bank policymakers on Thursday backed another big interest rate hike next month as euro zone inflation looked set for another record high, but they differed on whether it was time to think about mopping up cash from the economy. The ECB has raised rates by a combined 125 basis points over its past two meetings and promised further increases as inflation rises towards 10% and longer-term expectations edge above its 2% target. Strengthening the case for another 75-basis-point increase, data on Thursday showed inflation in Germany's most populous state jumped to 10.1% in September - the most since the early 1950s. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterGermany will publish a nationwide flash estimate for September inflation later on Thursday, with a reading for the 19-country euro zone due on Friday. "My choice would be 75 (basis points)," ECB policymaker Gediminas Simkus told Bloomberg TV on the sidelines of a conference in Vilnius.

☆ ECB may need to lift rates by 75 basis points in Oct, Kazimir says
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

Sept 28 (Reuters) - The European Central Bank may need to raise interest rates by another 75 basis points next month as inflation remains unacceptably high, Slovak central bank chief Peter Kazimir told a news conference on Wednesday. The ECB already lifted rates by a combined 125 basis points at its past two meetings, the quickest pace of tightening on record, and promised further rate hikes at least until it reaches the "neutral" level, which neither slows nor stimulates growth. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterReporting by Rober Muller; Writing by Balazs Koranyi; Editing by Alison WilliamsOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ ECB policymakers put 75 bps hike on table for October
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

FRANKFURT/HELSINKI, Sept 28 (Reuters) - The European Central Bank may need to raise interest rates by another 75 basis points at its October meeting and move again in December to a level that no longer stimulates the economy, policymakers said on Wednesday. Finnish central bank chief Olli Rehn, considered a moderate swing voter, also said that 75 basis points could be among the options. Outspoken policy hawk Robert Holzmann, Austria's central bank governor, also backed a 75 basis point move in an interview with Bloomberg TV, arguing that 100 basis points would simply be too much. ECB President Christine Lagarde said the "first destination" in the rate hiking cycle will be the "neutral" rate, which neither stimulates not slows growth. "In my view, we are heading towards the range of the neutral rate by Christmas," Rehn said.

☆ Morning Bid: Gimme Shelter
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan. read moreBut with the pound falling anew against the dollar on the credit rating and IMF warnings, the real problem is in UK government bonds, or gilts. read moreWith Wall Street stocks hitting a new low for the year on Tuesday, global shares sank to two-year lows on Wednesday. Fed chairman Jerome Powell and a host of other Fed speakers are in the diary again for later on Wednesday. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

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